Armed conflict severely exacerbates climate vulnerability and ecosystem degradation, yet conflict-sensitive environmental mainstreaming remains critically neglected in river basin planning. Focusing on the Tigray portion of the Tekeze River Basin in northern Ethiopia following the 2020–2022 armed conflict, this study provides a practical scientific basis to integrate environmental and climate priorities into the ongoing 15-year Tekeze Basin Plan.
We applied a Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework integrating multi-temporal remote sensing (Sentinel-2A and Landsat 8/9; 2018–2024), LULC/NDVI mapping, field surveys across six urban–rural corridors, and key informant interviews (n=48).
Primary conflict-driven Pressures induced 403 km² of vegetation loss, unmonitored mercury/cyanide contamination from artisanal mining, and widespread waste management failure across the Tigray sub-basin. Basin land cover is currently dominated by sparse vegetation (76.93%) and cropland (39.60%), with forest cover limited to 13.39% and surface water to 0.40%. Existing Responses are hampered by institutional collapse, absent monitoring networks, and weak enforcement, escalating water scarcity, food insecurity, and toxic ecological risks.
We deliver a prioritized environmental agenda, a phased implementation roadmap, and a novel Integrated Conflict-Sensitive Environmental and Social Safeguarding framework. This work offers a scalable template for climate resilience and ecosystem restoration in conflict-affected dryland basins globally. Beyond documenting environmental degradation, this study develops and operationalizes the Integrated Conflict-Sensitive Environmental and Social Safeguarding (ICSESS) framework, which transforms DPSIR assessment into a decision-support system for river basin planning. The framework provides a transferable model for integrating environmental restoration, climate resilience, and institutional recovery into Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM) in conflict-affected regions worldwide.
Keywords: Environmental Mainstreaming; DPSIR And ICSESS Frameworks; River Basin Planning; Climate Resilience; Post-Conflict Recovery; Ecosystem Restoration; Tekeze River Basin; Tigray; Ethiopia